Google Bard, Microsoft ChatGPT, and the Future of Search
OPINION: With the launch of Google Bard and the integration of ChatGPT into search, what does the future look like for SEOs?
Created on February 10|Last edited on March 6
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The writing has been on the wall since Google I/O 2022 as Google announced LamDA and PaLM. In that announcement, they displayed as part of the presentation, a screen that likely looks very similar to what many SEOs have panicked over recently.
It looked like:

Flash forward a couple of years, and pressure Google with some competition from OpenAI's ChatGPT and a Microsoft investment in both, and you have:

Google Bard, the introduction of AI-generated content in search results. Notwithstanding that it got facts wrong (we'll get to that below), it's a dramatic change to the face of search.
Before we dive in, here's what we'll be covering:
Key Information Before We Dive InWhat Is LamDA?What Is PaLM?What Is ChatGPT?But What's Going On In Search?What's At Stake For Google And Microsoft?But What About SEO?What Will The New Search Look Like?So, Is SEO Dead?Then What Do You Mean "Kind Of"?What Skills Will SEOs Need?You Have A Bit Of Time ⌛Some Fun Additional Reading
Adding to the anxiety of SEOs is the fact that Bing made the same announcement the following day. They've added ChatGPT-based capabilities to their own search engine.
Credit where it's due, search engine You.com announced their own version with citations back in December.
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I am seeing SEOs stating this is no big thing and that it doesn't change much (after all, it's error-prone) and I've seen others pulling out the age-old, "SEO is dead".
Thankfully there are also a lot of pragmatists in the crowd as well.
SEO will die when people stop trying to find information and products online. But to be sure, with what this change represents for the future, the fact of search is about to change dramatically. And no, I don't believe I'm being overdramatic.
Key Information Before We Dive In
Before I dive into the reason I believe this, let's first cover a few key topics ...

What Is LamDA?
LamDA, announced by Google in 2021, is a conversational language model built on Transformer, an open-source architecture first covered in the legendary 2017 paper "Attention Is All You Need".
By conversational, I simply mean that it was trained on conversations though it does draw examples of text from numerous sources, allowing it to work with a large collection of data and formulate an abundance of answers.
To give you an idea of scale, the largest LamDA model has 137B parameters vs GPT-3 with 175B.
At the time of the announcement the new LamDA model came equipped with the ability to:
- Imaging It: Create scenarios and situations based on its understanding of the world.
- Talk About It: Conversational chat. Chat ... where have we heard that word recently?
- List It: Create lists of tasks and sub-tasks.
Clearly they've been working on it since then.
What Is PaLM?
And PaLM is a 540-billion parameter model that produces significant improvement in reasoning tasks. These are tasks like:

It does this by using skills learned in one task to speed up the process of learning others. As their documentation describes:
"... we’d like to train one model that can not only handle many separate tasks, but also draw upon and combine its existing skills to learn new tasks faster and more effectively.
That way what a model learns by training on one task – say, learning how aerial images can predict the elevation of a landscape – could help it learn another task — say, predicting how flood waters will flow through that terrain.”
What Is ChatGPT?
ChatGPT is a conversational NLP model developed by OpenAI and built on GPT-3. Where GPT-3 accessed through the OpenAI Playground (my preference) is based on the same system, it is more generalized and thus responds with various outputs and formats vs ChatGPT with is generally more conversational.
That said, because it is a "sibling model" of InstructGPT, it also does a decent job of following instructions such as "write a list of ..." or "group this list ..."
Producing output like:

Worth noting, the release of GPT-4 is "supposed" to happen in Q1 of 2023.
While it will certainly be a leap forward, a quote from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman pretty much let's us know what to expect:
"People are begging to be disappointed and they will be. The hype is just like... We don’t have an actual AGI and that’s sort of what’s expected of us."

But What's Going On In Search?
So far we've cover a few machine learning models and not much else. It's time to look at what's going on presently in search, as well as where I believe things are headed. You'll obviously want to take that part with a grain of salt, as things are moving fast.
Like, "Obliterating Moore's Law" fast.
What we're seeing right now is the beginning of a new "arms race" in search.
Microsoft has been invested in OpenAI (and by extension GPT and ChatGPT) since 2019. At that time they invested $1 billion dollars and have added $2 billion more between then and the $10B they added on January 23, 2023, landing a 49% stake in the company.
In short, they didn't see ChatGPT and decide they wanted to add it to their search engine, they saw the potential to help develop it and similar models and then did.
Google/Alphabet, rather than investing in outside companies, simply invested in developing their own Large Language Models (LLMs).
This obviously gives them the flexibility to have direct impact on everything involved with the model, without having to worry about it impacting other stakeholders.
For example, where Google can make a change to support only themselves and without worrying about the impact on other users, OpenAI cannot.
On the other hand, training and other costs are entirely carried by Google for their own uses, where Microsoft has the benefit distributed users and costs. In fact, I believe part of the deal with their investment in OpenAI is that they recoup their investment early.
And now these two massive companies are at a standoff and at stake is not just search, but a whole lot more.
What's At Stake For Google And Microsoft?
I'm sure there are sides to this I am not thinking of, so let me begin with that confession. In short, there is more at stake than I am including here.
Even with that said, there's a lot more at stake here than search.
Yes, you search a lot each day. Everyone does.
But think about how often you use Word or Docs, Excel or Sheets, Gmail or ... well ... errr ... Outlook.
These LLMs don't just generate text from thin air, they are trained on it.
- They can be trained on your styles and mannerisms.
- They can be trained to answer emails based on your calendar, in the words you might use.
- They can be trained to create complex spreadsheets based on your verbal request vs learning how Excel/Sheets formulas work.
- They can be trained to write a paper letter for you, in your style.
All of this is a bit down the road, but not far.
Search. Your work. Your email.
Oh yes, and that phone you carry. Imagine if it actually responded to voice and gave you feedback the way we all wanted it to when we first tried it. That's coming too.
As Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said, "... this technology will reshape pretty much every software category."
In short, the stakes are high. The one that wins this, wins how you work, how you play and how you find things to do both.
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But What About SEO?
SEO is about to change dramatically, and those who don't accept and embrace this fact will be left behind. The problem is, if I'm right in what will happen over the next few years, many of the traditional SEO skills will be far less relevant for key queries.
Think about it, what is the goal of a search engine to a user? The short answer, the goal of a search engine is to help the user find the information they're looking for quickly.
And what is the goal of a search engine to the shareholder? To make money, of course.
The question them becomes:
What happens when the search engine is more confident in their understanding of the world having crawled basically every web page in existence, than they are in you and your content?
If both major engines' efforts in the paid space to push users to automated ad structures is any signal, they'll trust themselves and start producing the content themselves. Content they can control and insert ads into.
What Will The New Search Look Like?
The answer to this question really depends on how you think of search.
If you think of search as the page in your browser that contains some links to other sites, In my mind it will become something closer to:

But I've always taken a bit of a broader view of how this stage of online evolution goes, beyond the traditional desktop or mobile browser result.
The GIF below is from a slide deck I used in a presentation for at session at Pubcon Las Vegas back in 2019.
In the presentation I was taking the audience down the road I believe we're headed, into a truly portable world where conversational AI is at the forefront of the experience and supported by the myriad of input and output devices at our disposal.

Of course, the true direction will be driven by the speed of advancements in LLMs and their interoperability with realtime data, as well as hardware initiatives.
Whether I'm spot on or not, what I can guarantee is that we are moving more towards a search results page that looks more like a content page with links and embeds of additional resources, and an overall experience that uses our devices in ways we don't currently.
So, Is SEO Dead?

Stable Diffusion Prompt: giant borg stepping over dead human bodies,humans holding laptops and cell phones,in an office,realistic black and white sketch
Honestly, in my opinion, kind of. Not yet ... but soon. At least in the traditional sense.
I've read the words, "SEO is dead" at least a hundred times in my career, but this is the first time I've typed them myself, with any level of seriousness.
But it's very important to note the bold on "kind of" because if I'm right, it's not that the job "SEO" will disappear, simply that many aspects of it will be almost nothing like they are today.
As ChatGPT itself just told me:
"It's unlikely that AI-based search engines will make SEOs (search engine optimizers) obsolete. While AI technology is advancing rapidly and has the potential to significantly impact the search engine landscape, SEOs still play an important role in helping businesses optimize their online presence for search engines and user experience."
So you can sleep well knowing they're not coming for your job. 😉
Then What Do You Mean "Kind Of"?
Here are things that will not change:
- People will keep buying things.
- People will keep seeking solutions to problems.
- People will keep looking for entertainment.
- People will keep working.
Basically, all the things people do online that generates revenue for companies will continue to exist, but how it gets presented and monetized will change drastically, and with that - a transformative shift in how content is optimized.
Will SEO exist? Yes. Though I wouldn't be surprised if we see a name change, though to what I'm not sure.
What will SEO be? That's the big question.
If content is ingested by Google and Bing and whoever joins the race, and is spit out in the form of generated answers and pages, the search may not be giving a click in the traditional sense, but they may still see your content.
But of course it may not look like your content, your content was just used as part of the training set of a machine learning model.

"Your content" has a much broader scope in this new world, a world where answers are served up on a platter to the end user.
If your goal, at least for the AI-generated portion of the search results, is to somehow influence the content generated to include you specifically or at least ideas you are known for and will appear in other queries, then does it matter if that content is on your domain?
If your goal is to train a machine learning model then "your content" might be best served on not just on your domains but on trusted domains, with surrounding content that reinforces other ideas a machine might find on pages it's using to gain an understanding of a topic. After all, modern generative-text models create content a word-at-a-time based on the probability of the next word being right. If it's generating content related to your vertical, you want to be that "next word" meaning you need to exist among potential concepts that appear before.
For example, in the SEO space one might develop content on their blog (of course), but you might now find yourself more strongly looking at guest posting on key trusted domains like Search Engine Land, not for the link (will they even matter anymore?), but knowing they may be more trusted as a training ground, and also to provide multiple points of reference and concepts that generally appear with you or your offerings.
Another area that we all need to keep in mind is attribution.
Imagine this, a user visits Google and asks, "What are the best laptop for machine learning?" and they're provided with a list of results and a brief, AI-generated explanation, as well as supplemental links that will trigger new AI-generated answers to assist the user in understanding what they should look for in an ML-first laptop.
From there the user clicks on a link in that result to a generated page within Google where generated content on the laptop in question is presented, YouTube videos, a summary of all the reviews from around the web as well as a few embedded directly, and shopping results.
If the user then clicks through to your paid result you will only see paid as the attribution, and if they click an organic shopping result you will only see a shopping-specific organic links in your analytics with little clarity into the actual user starting point and where the content on top laptops for each purpose that also influenced other write-ups, may have had a strong hand in the initial results and eventual purchase.
Where once you might have seen referral traffic from a quality review site, you now just see Google shopping traffic, but the user journey was "the same".
This poses a huge problem/opportunity. With less data comes less insight. But if you're the one who knows that, you know to produce the content that sways the model producing that content - even if you can't directly tie it to your bottom line.
Won't that be fun to explain? 😉
What Skills Will SEOs Need?
I can't predict the future, but I've been around long enough to hopefully have a decent idea of what's coming. And I certainly know the areas I'll be focusing on as I watch this play out.
They are:
- Knowledge Graphs - I'm not referring to Google's Knowledge Graph as displayed in search results here, but they're certainly helpful. A Knowledge Graph, as described by IBM, "... represents a network of real-world entities—i.e. objects, events, situations, or concepts—and illustrates the relationship between them. This information is usually stored in a graph database and visualized as a graph structure, prompting the term knowledge “graph.” In short, you can think of them as a graph of concepts and entities (nodes) connecting relationships (edges) that are used to form a "picture" of what an entity is and how it relates to the world at large. IMO, developing your Knowedge Graph is akin to training search engines to understand the relationship your company and/or offerings have to other concepts and things. Want to be included in generated results around SEO? You had best make sure the engines understand fully how you connect to them.
- Content - The content I'd be looking at when I'm wanting to "simply rank" and how it's optimized will be fundamentally different than when I'm looking to influence the AI-generated results in a few ways. The first is simply that, given there may be no result or citation, SEOs will need to focus on helping the engines connect the dots with their preferred messaging and topical inclusions (ex: specific products) and less on whether that content might rank for a query that no longer produces a prominent linked result. The second I alluded to earlier, and that's including in your content strategy offsite content on key pages that help form the Knowledge Graph. In this context, it's not links one is seeking, but simply ensuring that your desired associations are understood and reinforced on resources that would be trusted to train a machine learning model. Think, "Wikipedia." But for goodness sake don't spam them.
- Content Too Two - On this topic, I also found a comment from Nathan Gotch in his video from February 8 very interesting. In the video he notes not to target simple queries that AI can easily produce an answer for. These are the queries I'm noting to focus on helping them understand that you relate to those queries and should/could be included. He notes that for many queries (like "best XYZ in <my city>") AI cannot fill in the gaps. This is where traditional SEO will still win, so the advice is to target those and I obviously have to agree.
- Technical SEO - More important than ever will be technical SEO. Not only in the context of having a fast site to help ensure the bots properly crawl and index what you're offering, but additionally I suspect Schema will play an even larger role as it helps the engines fully understand what an entity is and what it's connected to. Additionally, I suspect we'll be seeing updated APIs and offerings on ways to get your raw content directly to the engines so they can consume it without crawling. This is just a hunch, but I can't see it not happening because crawling is expensive and in this world, unnecessary. You'll still need your XML sitemap, but that too I suspect is due for a revamp and may serve the dual-purpose.
In short, it's going to be a very interesting balancing act between ranking traditional pages to appear in links/maps/etc. where applicable, but also advancing your energies into creating an understanding to machine learning models if where you fit into the big picture of your industry.
You Have A Bit Of Time ⌛
Training machine learning models is hard. When ChatGPT rolled out and rumors abound that it was a "Google-killer" I had to note that the problem Google faces in this scenario is that when people use ChatGPT it's a cute toy they play with and chuckle when it's wrong.
Google has to deal with the real world, and real people making real decisions so when they make a mistake:

Let's be honest, they're still doing fine, but this is what happens.
Microsoft is now in a similar spot, with their bot trying to break up marriages ...
And later got threatening with another user for leaking her rules:
In short, you have time. Clearly these systems cannot be trusted to take over search results pages just yet.
At the same time, your competitors have the same time you do and in a year or two, when the systems are more fully evolved, which of you will be the winner?
Some Fun Additional Reading

AI Has Suddenly Evolved to Achieve Theory of Mind
In a stunning development, a neural network now has the intuitive skills of a 9-year-old.
An Introduction to Training LLMs Using Reinforcement Learning From Human Feedback (RLHF)
In this article, we explore Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback, a novel approach to reducing bias and increasing performance in large language models.
Microsoft Bing's Weird Responses!
Microsoft's new Bing AI can generate some interesting responses when prompted a certain way.

An important next step on our AI journey
The official announcement of Google Bard.
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